- Tue Apr 01, 2025 5:31 pm
#9632
Tesla's Future: Is a 5-Year Outlook Too Shortsighted?
A recent analysis suggests Tesla's current valuation hinges on aggressive EBIT margin expansion, raising questions about its short-term prospects. While a 23% CAGR over the next five years is projected, achieving the implied equity value seems dependent on margins ballooning to 35%. Considering recent margin compression in the core EV business, is this realistic?
The bullish counterargument centers around Tesla's potential as a SaaS company driven by FSD and robotaxis, with some projecting 80% margins in the robotaxi segment. This raises some key questions for the forum:
How much weight should we place on the potential of FSD and robotaxis when evaluating Tesla's current valuation? Is a 5-year timeframe even appropriate for such a disruptive technology? Are we undervaluing Tesla's long-term potential by focusing on near-term margin pressures in the EV market?
Even with a significant price drop, the margin of safety seems thin for a 5-year horizon. Does this suggest a 10-year (or longer) perspective is needed? What factors beyond FSD and robotaxis might contribute to Tesla's growth over the next decade?
Share your insights, predictions, and experiences. Let's explore whether Tesla's current price represents a discounted opportunity or a speculative gamble.
A recent analysis suggests Tesla's current valuation hinges on aggressive EBIT margin expansion, raising questions about its short-term prospects. While a 23% CAGR over the next five years is projected, achieving the implied equity value seems dependent on margins ballooning to 35%. Considering recent margin compression in the core EV business, is this realistic?
The bullish counterargument centers around Tesla's potential as a SaaS company driven by FSD and robotaxis, with some projecting 80% margins in the robotaxi segment. This raises some key questions for the forum:
How much weight should we place on the potential of FSD and robotaxis when evaluating Tesla's current valuation? Is a 5-year timeframe even appropriate for such a disruptive technology? Are we undervaluing Tesla's long-term potential by focusing on near-term margin pressures in the EV market?
Even with a significant price drop, the margin of safety seems thin for a 5-year horizon. Does this suggest a 10-year (or longer) perspective is needed? What factors beyond FSD and robotaxis might contribute to Tesla's growth over the next decade?
Share your insights, predictions, and experiences. Let's explore whether Tesla's current price represents a discounted opportunity or a speculative gamble.
- By Anonymous